Gas station without pumps

2015 January 5

Kickstarter campaign predictions partly right

Filed under: Uncategorized — gasstationwithoutpumps @ 21:32
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In Kickstarter campaign continues strong, I predicted

I’m expecting to see a bit of tick upwards on Boxing Day (26 December) as people are given monetary presents and decide to get themselves the lights, and perhaps another uptick on Jan 2 or Jan 5, as people go back to work.

I Kickstarter campaign still slowly gaining, I said

The first of those predictions was not met.  According to Kicktraq, there were only 2 backers ($378) on Dec 26, the second smallest day they’ve had (Dec 23 was 2 backers and $338).

The Jan 2 and Jan 5 predictions were better: both were good days at $897 and $1492. But I hadn’t predicted that there would be negative days, where more backers withdrew than contributed (–$123, –$149, and –$492 on Dec 29, Dec 30, and Jan 4), so they hovered around $48k–$49k for quite a while. Kicktraq and Kickspy projections have diverged even further, with Kicktraq suggesting $53k–$56k and Kickspy  more optimistic ($66.7k). (Yesterday Kicktraq was even lower, and Kickspy was higher—we’ll see who got it right next week.)

I don’t know how much of the uptick on Jan 5 is due to the back-to-work phenomenon, and how much is due to an article about the company in the Santa Cruz Sentinel. That article is pretty good, though they make it sound like Abe J. joined the company before Abe K., and that Abe J. contributed to the software on the Kinetic (he’s been working on other product ideas and on the web store that the company plans to open). I’ve added that link and a few others I’ve found to the Futuristic Lights media page I’m keeping (as an outsider, not for the company, though they are welcome to copy it to their site).

The $55k stretch goal is no longer looking likely, but still possible—they would need to raise $780/day for the five and half remaining days.  But they have already announced on the Kickstarter site that they’ll be doing clear bulbs for everyone even if the stretch goal isn’t met—so there is no special incentive for the stretch goal any more.

They’re now up to 2782 boards pre-sold, so I’m pretty sure they’ll make at least 6000 (more if they can get a wholesale order before they have to commit to manufacturing).

They expect now to pay off all the loans to the company and have enough of the Kinetic manufactured to open their web store after the Kickstarter orders have all been fulfilled. They won’t be paying themselves yet—still plowing all proceeds into growing the company. They do have other ideas for products, which they plan to develop and release at a rate of one or two a year—I don’t know whether they’ll be able to do that with Abe K. being a full-time college student (taking an overload of courses this quarter—3 computer science, 2 math, and 1 acting class, plus joining the Multicultural Drama Company at UCSB). My son corrects me, to say that it is 4 ¼ CS, 1 math, and 1 acting.


If you haven’t checked out their Kickstarter page, please do so—they really have created the best of the microlights on the market, and their web page describing the product is quite well done.


1 Comment »

  1. […] Kickstarter campaign predictions partly right, I […]

    Pingback by Kickstarter campaign finished at 307% | Gas station without pumps — 2015 January 11 @ 13:01 | Reply

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