Gas station without pumps

2021 January 22

Santa Cruz County Covid stats

Filed under: Uncategorized — gasstationwithoutpumps @ 10:11

Santa Cruz County Health have recently improved their web site to report more details about deaths from COVID-19. I looked at the current data (“data entered into CalREDIE as of 1/20/2021, 17:00”) to see what I could learn.

Our county is a bit unusual in how high a percentage of the deaths are in nursing homes (79/120=66%, compared to 33% statewide).  Four outbreaks make up most of these deaths: 20 in Santa Cruz Post Acute, 16 in Watsonville Post Acute, 14 in Pacific Coast Manor, and 7 in Hearts and Hands.  The other nursing homes have 1–3 deaths each.

Like other places, most of our positive tests are in young adults, but most of the deaths are in older adults—the case fatality rate starts going up somewhere in the 60s and really soars in the 80s and 90s:

age range cases deaths case fatality rate
0–19 2391 0 0%
20–29 2666 0 0%
30–39 2160 3 0.14%
40–49 1855 2 0.11%
50–59 1520 1 0.07%
60–69 1031 13 1.26%
70–79 478 22 4.60%
80–89 257 36 14.01%
90+ 163 43 26.38%

If we aggregate the ages below 60, we get 5535 cases for 30–59, 8201 cases for 20–59, or 10,592 cases for 0–59, giving case fatality rates of 0.11%, 0.07%, and 0.06% respectively.   I don’t know how many cases there were in the nursing homes (only the deaths are reported), so I don’t know what the difference in case fatality rate is for old people in nursing homes and old people not in nursing homes. Given the very high fraction of the total deaths for people in nursing homes, I suspect that the case fatality rate in nursing homes is much higher than the overall death rate for those age groups: possibly getting close to 100%.

Although the case rate indicates that more Latinx people are getting infected than their share of the population (55.36% of the cases are Latinx vs. 33.49% of the population),  the death rates match the population statistics (31.67% of the deaths are of Latinx people).  Most of the old people in the county are white, and age is a much stronger predictor of who will die than race is.

According to the state page tracking ICU beds, Santa Cruz County currently has 9 patients in ICU beds, with no ICU beds available.  The number of ICU beds in the county has varied a lot (on July 17 we had 2 ICU beds in use and 37 ICU beds available), probably based more on staffing available than on beds and equipment. We have had two days so far (Nov 4 and Jan 8) with 20 patients in ICU beds.  The number currently hospitalized is 72, down from 84 on Jan 16 and 17 or 86 on Jan 4.  The downward trend in hospitalization seems to be a statewide trend, and I hope it continues.  The vaccine should start helping in about a month, if they can get their act together for delivering it.


  1. Nice chart, thanks!
    encouraging data for those of us under 80!
    We think we had covid last March,
    yet couldn’t get a test unless we had just been in Italy or lived in a care facility in Seattle.
    It was quite unpleasant, never had bronchial symptoms like that, even with asthma.
    As government flailed and blamed China for lack of good information, we realized covid was already everywhere.
    Welcome to the jet-age.
    thumbs up Kev,

    Comment by richard rebman — 2021 January 29 @ 19:25 | Reply

  2. […] while back, I posted about the Santa Cruz County Health Department’s COVID-19 dashboard.  Yesterday, 2021 March […]

    Pingback by Santa Cruz County hits 200 Covid deaths | Gas station without pumps — 2021 March 24 @ 20:04 | Reply

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