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2015 June 19

2015 AP Exam Score Distributions

Filed under: Uncategorized — gasstationwithoutpumps @ 21:36
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Once again this year, I’m posting a pointer to 2015 AP Exam Score Distributions:

Total Registration has compiled the following scores from Tweets that the College Board’s head of AP, Trevor Packer, has been making during June. These are preliminary breakdowns that may change slightly as late exams are scored.

I don’t know why I provide this free advertising for Total Registration, as I have no connection with the company, and do not endorse their services.  If the College Board would collect Trevor’s comments themselves, I’d point that page.  The main interest in AP result distributions comes in May, when students are taking the tests, and July when the students get the results.

The official score distributions (still from 2014 as of this posting—new results don’t go up until the Fall) from the College board are at https://apscore.collegeboard.org/scores/about-ap-scores/score-distributions, at least until the College Board scrambles their web site again, which they do every couple of years, breaking all external links.  They post a separate PDF file for each exam, which makes comparison between exams more difficult (deliberately, I believe, since inter-exam comparison is not really a meaningful thing to do).  It is also difficult to get good historical data on how the exam scores have changed over time—College Board probably has it on their website somewhere, but finding stuff in their morass is not easy.

My most popular post this year was once again How many AP courses are too many?, with about 19 views per day.  (It has also come in second over the lifetime of the blog, behind 2011 AP Exam Score Distribution.) The question of how many AP courses seems to come up both in the fall, when students are choosing their schedules, and in the spring, when students are overwhelmed by how many AP courses they took.

There aren’t many exams graded yet (only 11 on the Total Registration site), so I don’t have much to say about the results.  I probably won’t be looking at the exam scores much this year, since my son is no longer eligible to take AP exams, having graduated from high school. I might look at some of the statistics for the AP computer science exam, as I have some interest in seeing whether there are any changes in the number of test takers.  The interesting results (about gender and geography) won’t come out until the fall reports.

2014 June 21

2014 AP Exam Score Distributions

Once again this year, I’m posting a pointer to 2014 AP Exam Score Distributions:

Total Registration has compiled the following scores from Tweets that the College Board’s head of AP, Trevor Packer, has been making during June. These are preliminary breakdowns that may change slightly as late exams are scored.

Disclaimer: I have no connection with the company Total Registration, and do not endorse their services.  If the College Board would collect Trevor’s comment themselves, I’d point that page.  The main interest in AP result distributions comes in May, when students are taking the tests, and July when the students get the results.

The official score distributions (still from 2013 as of this posting) from the College board are at https://apscore.collegeboard.org/scores/about-ap-scores/score-distributions, at least until the College Board scrambles their web site again, which they do every couple of years, breaking all external links.  They post a separate PDF file for each exam, which makes comparison between exams more difficult (deliberately, I believe, since inter-exam comparison is not really a meaningful thing to do).  It is also difficult to get good historical data on how the exam scores have changed over time—College Board probably has it on their website somewhere, but finding stuff in their morass is not easy.

Views for my 2011 AP distribution post show the May and July spikes.

Views for my 2011 AP distribution post show the May and July spikes. This has been my most-viewed blog post, which is a bit embarrassing, since it has little original content.

My 2013 AP distribution post has not been as popular, probably because of search engine placement at Google.

My 2013 AP distribution post has not been as popular, probably because of search engine placement at Google.

My most popular post this year was How many AP courses are too many?, with about 10 views per day.  (It has also come in third over the lifetime of the blog, behind 2011 AP Exam Score Distribution and Installing gnuplot—a nightmare.) The question of how many AP courses seems to come up both in the fall, when students are choosing their schedules, and in the spring, when students are overwhelmed by how many AP courses they took.

The one AP exam my son took this year was AP Chemistry, for which only 10.1% got a 5 this year and about 53% pass (3, 4, or 5). We won’t have his score for a while yet, so we’re keeping our fingers crossed for a 5.  He finished all the free-response questions, so he’s got a good shot at it.

The Computer Science A exam saw an increase of 33% in test takers, with about a 61% pass rate (3, 4, or 5). The exams scores were heavily bimodal, with peaks at scores of 4 and at 1.  I wonder whether the new AP CS courses that Google funded contributed more to the 4s or to the 1s. I also wonder whether the scores clustered by schools, with some schools doing a decent job of teaching Java syntax (most of what the AP CS exam covers, so far as I can tell) and some doing a terrible job, or whether the bimodal distribution is happening within classes also.  I suspect clustering by school is more prevalent. The bimodal distribution of scores was there in 2011, 2012, and 2013 also, so is not a new phenomenon.  (Calculus BC sees a similar bimodal distribution in past years—the 2014 distribution is not available yet.) Update 2014 July 13: all score distributions are now available, and Calculus BC is indeed very bimodal with 48.3% 5s, 16.8% 4s, 16.4% 3s, 5.2% 2s, then back up to 13.3% 1s. Calculus AB has a somewhat flatter distribution, but the same basic shape: 24.3% 5s, 16.7% 4s, 17.7% 3s, 10.8% 2s, and 30.5% 1s. Overall calculus scores are up this year.  The 30.5% 1s on Calculus AB indicates that a lot of unprepared students are taking that test.  Is this the “AP-for-everyone” meme’s fault?

Physics B scores were way down this year, and Physics C scores way up—maybe the good students are getting the message that if you want to go into physical sciences, calculus-based physics is much more valuable than algebra-based physics. I expect that the algebra-based physics scores will go up a bit next year when they roll out Physics 1 and Physics 2 in place of Physics B, but that the number of students taking the Physics 2 exam will drop a lot.  I don’t expect a big change in the number of Physics C exam takers—schools that are offering calculus-based physics will not be changing their offerings much just because the College Board wants to have more low-level exams.

AP Biology is still  seeing the nearly normal distribution of scores, with 6.5% 5s and 8.8% 1s, so there hasn’t been a return to the flatter distribution of scores seen before the 2013 test change.

As always, the “easy” AP exams see much poorer average scores than the “hard” ones, showing that self-selection of who takes the exams is much more effective for the harder exams. When College Board and the high-school rating systems push schools to offer AP, the schools generally start by offering the “easy” courses, and push students who are not prepared to take the exams.  As long as we have stupid ratings that look only at how many students are taking the exams, rather than at how many are passing, we’ll see large numbers of failed exams.

2014 March 5

SAT is changing in 2016

Filed under: Uncategorized — gasstationwithoutpumps @ 14:41
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The big news today is that the College Board has announced a major overhaul of the SAT, to be effective in 2016:

The major changes seem to be these:

  • Eliminating difficult vocabulary in favor of common words like “synthesis”. This is intended to reduce the benefit of vocabulary study, but is likely to reduce the benefit of having read extensively (which is the main source for a large vocabulary).
  • Adding a penalty for leaving any questions unanswered.  They phrase this as “eliminating the guessing penalty”, but there was no penalty for guessing—the expected value of a guess was 0, the same as leaving a question unanswered. Now guessing will have a positive expected value, so leaving a question unanswered is effectively penalized.
  • Merging the critical reading and writing multiple-guess questions, so that there is one score for both reading and writing. This makes some sense, as the current split between the two seems completely arbitrary.
  • Making the essay optional, so that there will be a return to a 1600-point scale with a separate score for those who choose to do the essay.  Since the essay bore little resemblance to writing in college, was graded randomly (or worse), and encouraged teaching the awful 5-paragraph essay, eliminating the essay is probably a very good move. The new optional essay will be twice as long, which may make it have some minor predictive value, unlike the current essay. I suspect that 90% of colleges will not request the essay, as it has had essentially no predictive value.
  • Alignment to the Common Core, which is of dubious utility for predicting college success, given that the Common Core is primarily designed for non-college-bound students.
  • Allowing the SAT to be taken on computers. I wonder how they are going to arrange the proctoring to make sure that no computer-based cheating occurs.

Although the College Board says that this overhaul is not prompted by their shrinking market share (ACT now sells more tests than SAT), I’m sure that is the primary driving factor.  If the College Board behaved more like a non-profit than like a corporate monopoly (smaller executive salaries, pricing for distributing scores to college that was close to actual costs rather than the price gouging that they currently engage it), I’d be more inclined to believe that this was not just a “market share” phenomenon.  Since all the changes make them look more like the ACT, it seems to be entirely profit-driven, not based on a desire to more accurately predict the success of college applicants.

Eliminating the essay should make the SAT much cheaper to grade, but I’ve not heard any announcements about them reducing the price of the exams.

 

 

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